Subjective way of weather forecasting. Objective methods of weather forecasting: deterministic, stochastic and deterministic-stochastic approach. The governing equations of the atmosphere in different co-ordinate systems (generalised, spherical, tangential and map projections). Review of numerical methods for solving the governing equations: method of final differences and function expansion into series (spectral and final elements). Non-linear numerical nonstability and filtering (low-pass and bandpass filters). Initialisation of numerical models: equilibrium equations, normal modes, 4-dimensional variational analysis. Boundary conditions. Barotropic limited area model in conic map projection. Six-layer hemispheric forecasting model with primitive equations. Global spectral model of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Introducing with the regional models ALADIN (Aire Limitee Adaptation et Development International) and HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Modelling). Stochastic (regression) approach to the weather forecasting. Analogy method. Deterministic-stochastic approach: atmospheric predictability, ensemble forecasts. Subjective interpretation of the prognostic model outputs. Regression way of interpretation (Method output Statistic, perfect Prognosis). Adaptive deterministic models (e.g. adaptation of air flow to the orography). Forecasts for special applications. Verification of the forecasts.
It is expected that after completion of this course, the students should know how to:
Explain the meaning of individual terms in hydrodynamic equations with respect to coordinate systems,
Numerically solve the system of differential equations,
Compare and contrast the meaning of the output of numerical models and the meaning of the analytical material,
Make the subjective and the objective weather forecast,
Distinguish between special and standard weather forecasts.
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