About the project

Temporal and spatial statistical analysis of climatological variables will be performed, with the emphasis on the multidecadal changes in temperature and precipitation indices of extremes in the Adriatic region. Particular attention will be paid to the analysis of drought, floods and heat waves. Possible change in climate suitability for tourism will be investigated. The obtained gridded fields will become a reference data for the validation of climate models and an input into the flash-flood warning systems. Current and future climate of the Mediterranean area will be examined by analyzing the results of global-model simulations and by using the statistical and dynamical downscaling approach. Simulations by RegCM4.2 regional climate model will be performed at the horizontal resolution of 12.5 km. Also planned is to utilize results from experiments based on coupled atmosphere-ocean models from the currently running Med-CORDEX project with a purpose of analyzing the contribution of oceanic component in the simulations over the Adriatic Sea and the surrounding land area. Trends and interdecadal variability of sea level in the Mediterranean sub-basins will be identified and contributions of the governing processes will be assessed. Coastal flooding in the Northern Adriatic and time evolution in occurrence of extreme sea levels in the context of mean-sea-level rise will be considered. Finally, older variants of semi-empirical method of projecting global sea level will be compared with the more general method recently developed. It is expected that the project thus considered will meet the three important criteria (relevance, reliability, feasibility), by addressing one of the few priorities put forward by the European Union in its growth strategy Europe 2020, by relying on the state-of-the-art methods of data analysis and modeling, and by involving a majority of researchers engaged in the study of climate-related physical processes
in Croatia.